SOTUS - Great Speech, Shame About Some of the Facts. Supermoon in Milton

Blue Supermoon seen from Milton

I watched the whole US State of the Union Address, all ninety minutes of it. From a speech makers perspective, it was very well done, with President Trump looking and sounding Presidential throughout.

There were heartstrings tugged as ordinary, or rather extra-ordinary people had been invited to be celebrated as true Americans because of their bravery and deeds.

From the welder who financed his education to get a job with a company which is expanding, via the helicopter pilot who flew rescue and mercy missions after the Hurricane, to the police officer who, with his wife, adopted a baby from a pregnant heroin addict living rough on the streets that he encountered as part of his duties. From the boy who placed flags on veterans graces to the couple whose son had returned broken from North Korea and died soon afterwards. There was even a North Korean refugee who fled his country after losing his legs and now campaigned in South Korea.

However, for more than half the address, when the camera panned to the Democrat side of the chamber, there were rows of grim faces whilst standing ovations were occurring on the Republican side, Going to a range of fact checking sites, it seems that often the facts were, well, Trumped up, especially with regards to size of the tax cuts and immigration. I looked at CNN, BBC, ABC15 Arizona and NBC News and PolitiFact. The growth of the economy an employment appeared to be benefits from previous president's actions.

Perhaps the most worrying item is that Guantanamo Bay Detention Centre is not going to be closed but continue to be used for terrorists.

For a speech trumpeted to be conciliatory, it seemed to me to still leave half of the audience unconvinced.

After a migraine day (probably caused by watching the address), it was off to Huntingdonshire Speakers for a training evening in speaker evaluations. Robert and Faye both gave excellent presentations. Even the Tabletopics were evaluations, first of a great speach by Nadine on being the 'other mother' in a gay relationship, and then as evaluations of the evaluations. My role in the evening turned out to be the evaluator of the Tabletopics evaluations, fortunately with great hilarity in places.

Coming back late in the evening, the Supermoon was bright in a clear sky. I dug out the camera and 600 mm mirror lens again and took 120 or so photos, of which 30 could be combined into a reasonable stack. I'd caught glimpses of the lunar exclipse on the PC earlier in the day too.

Leaked Government Brexit Impact Report Believable or Not? Sugared Almonds and Photos

BuzzFeed News reported on a leaked document for the Depsrtment for Exiting the EU (DexEU). It reported that, whether you were looking at a soft brexit or a hard one, the current assessment was for 2% to 8% reduction in economic growth. Almost all areas of the economy would be affected. The analysis did include the establishment of new trade deals.

The issue was raised in Parliament where Brexit Minister Steve Baker tried to play down the importance of the document and initiating a new row by suggesting that documents like this, produced by the civil service are not to be believed. However, we are to believe brexiteers on principle, that they are right.

The Guardian drily notes that previously David Davis had stated that reports on the economic impact of Brexit had been made and then, when forced to present it to the parliamentary committee on Brexit, had to reveal that impact assessments did not actually exist. Now the government  is arguing that a recent impact assessment, to be presented to ministers, does exist, but that it is unwilling to share it with parliament.

Made some sugar-cinnamon coated almonds over the weekend and am rationing them each day. Used 200 g skinned almonds from Tesco. Mixed 100 g sugar with 50 ml water, added half a teaspoon of ground cinnamon and brought to the boil. Added almonds and kept stirring till solution thickened and became flaky as it coated the almonds. Placed on grease-proof paper to cool and then stored in a tub.

Last night was prompted by a Facebook post to look at the moon and try some photography. Stacking 16 images made using a 600 mm reflector lens gave a good result. Today, moved on from daytime photo-editing for a biography to some macro-photography of spider and a pond skater microscope slides in the evening.

Brexit Burns Brightly Again with Transition Negotiation Positions Stated. Weekend Bentley, Stag and Comedy.

I just lost the will to report on a lacklustre BrexiTrump after Davos and life was busy over the weekend too.

However things are going to liven up a bit, especially with regards to Brexit as today, both David Davis and Michel Barnier put forward their respective positions for negotiating the transitional arrangements for the UK from next March.

The EU 27 apparently took a relatively short time to agree to the next stage of negotiations with the UK, giving Michel Barnier four key principles to start them off. These are in brief:

1. No cherry picking.
2. All existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures will apply, (including the ECJ).
3. During Transition, the UK will no longer be represented in Union institutions, agencies, bodies and offices.
4. The transition period to finish on 31st Dec at the latest.

However, the UK will be free to negotiate deals with non-EU countries, just not implement them till after the end of the transition period.

No high profile foaming at the mouth comments from Brexiteers on the news yet.but the night is still young.

From a personal perspective, Friday was interesting for to things. The first was the HBN Out and About to the insurance company Coversure, which franchises out branches across the UK. Particular points to note were insuring against digital risks and the impending General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) impact on small businesses.

The second Friday interest was having a lift and a bit of a tour in Graham Buck's Bentley (well, one of the four, this was the two door version). Just the demonstrated acceleration had the blood rushing out of my head and leaving me dizzy. Remarkable road handling, as seen from the passenger seat.

Saturday was my first attendance at a Stag do, fortunately organised to be a civilised event by a female best (wo)man for L's fiance S. It began in London at the Swingers Club - with indoor crazy golf, followed by a visit to a cocktail bar, then a high class indian meal and finally, an evening at the Comedy Club near Seven Dials.

Sunday was a recovery day.

Today, Jane and I paid a visit to the Beehive centre - initially to get replacememt wipers for the car. then it was on for a wonder around the Aladdins cave of Hobbycraft for a magnetic clasp and various other items.

Trump and Theresa's Bright Brexit Future. The Joy of Disney's Singing Princesses

Looking out from Tintern Abbey

With President Trump pronouncing at Davos that he and Theresa May are joined at the hip, and Theresa May emphasising that they are standing shoulder to shoulder, it is a relief that they "like each other a lot". What a relief too, in the light of an impending Brexit, that the President  sees the opportunity for a "tremendous increase" in UK-US trade. Downing Street has even asked officials here in the UK to prepare for a Trump visit later this year.

So how long could it take to get a trade deal? There is a report from the World Economic Forum back in 2016 on the question. It states that the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) crunched the numbers. Some countries like Panama, Columbia and Canada took seven to eleven years ot agree and implement a deal. However, out of the 19 deals considered, ten were signed within 18  months. On average, it then took anywhere between 18 months to 102 months for all the deals to be implemented, with an average of 45 months (nearly four years). That would be an average of five and a half years, assuming the chlorinated chicken issue can be dealt with and we can retain an NHS.

Jacob Rees-Mogg was exasperated by the cautious government approach and aim to stick to the EU as closely as possible. He used phrases like the UK becoming a vassal state of the EU and exerted pressure to leave the EU faster. There are mutterings again about Theresa May's future.

The Presidents Club charity event fallout has led to the closure of the club, the Prime Minister expressing concern about what it says about societal attitudes, and a Labour front bench attendee at the event stepping back from his role.

Spent the late afternoon giving a photoshow, by invitation, to a local community at a casual drop-in event. There were interesting and informative conversations. The unexpected highlight was the young girl (3 or 4 years old?) who was an authority on Disney Princesses and the films they were in. As it became quieter during the later part of the session, we switched the laptop to a YouTube half an hour of songs by Disney Princesses, to the absolute delight of the little princess who animatedly and joyously watched and commented on each one!

Davos Expectations, Abuse at President's Club Event, Paxton Mammoths and Man

Wicker Woolly Mammoth Paxton Pits Nature Reserve

Everyone is waiting for the business and politics leaders meeting to kick off at Davos, with President Macron looking to Steal Chancellor Merkel's post as leader of the EU and President Trump looking to make an impact later in the week. Prime Minister Theresa May will also be there. 

The main news in the UK was the sexism and abuse at the Presidents Club all-male event with hired-in women as hostesses(?) which fell foul of an undercover female reporter exposing the abuse by some. It dominated Prime Minister's Question Time (or at least the time in parliament afterwards) where all the women MPs on both sides of the house were unanimous in their condemnation. Later on Radio 4, all the male journalists affirmed that they would not attend any all male events. Which begs the question about attendance at stag dos and hen nights and whether behavior and mysogeny at  those is likely to change over time.

Whilst the weather was absolutely abysmal today, with torrential rain interspersing a generally wet and grey day, I had a fun afternoon with the Friends of Paxton Pits Nature Reserve. Forty-five people turned out for my talk on Mammoths and Man, which was well received, with great questions afterwards. They have beautiful examples of proboscidean fossils on display: a meter long tusk from a female woolly mammoth, a lower jaw with two large molars in situ, which might be mammoth or possibly even straight-tusked elephant, and a lovely vertebra with a long spur that could well have come from the shoulder region to allow attachment of strong muscles to bear the weight of the head and the long tusks. Picked up S on the way for support and he helped with the sale of my book and generally chatting to people after the talk.

In the growing gloom as we left, managed to photograph the large walk-in wicker woolly mammoth outside the education centre at Paxton Pits.

Unfilled NHS Posts. Home Office Blocked Doctors. Community Cafe

One of the consequences of the Brexit referendum has been the spotlight on immigration and the governments aim to curtail it. So, on the one hand, Jeremy Hunt concedes that the NHS might need more investment and Boris Johnson wants Brexit money for a substantial cash injection.

Yet on the other hand, that same institution is suffering from the hardened immigration stance. The Royal College of Nursing is alarmed at the peak in nursing vacancies rising to 34,260 in the third quarter of the last year. According to the Guardian, Hospitals in London are finding it impossible to fill the advertised 2,545 posts for nurses and midwives of three summer months. Only 42 posts were filled. Further north, the West Midlands were most successful, filling 42% of advertised posts.

Meanwhile 33,000 nurses quite the NHS each year, adding to the pressures and dissatisfaction felt by many in the NHS.

Even more perverse, is the Home Office blocking overseas senior doctors from filling essential roles, because their salaries were seen as lower than the required minimum salary of £55,000. Here, Cambridge University Hospital found that three appointees had their visas declined for this reason.

The Community cafe was open this afternoon, but our numbers were sadly depleted due to illness and hospital or doctor's appointments. Still, it was a good event. I joined the Carcassonne board game table, we had some new faces and Nathalie spoilt us with her baking - Mango roulade, Lemon and poppyseed cake and white chocolate and raspberry tart.

US Shutdown Halted. Business to Lobby Against Brexit. Milton Pothole

Pothole on the A10

Republican and Democrat leaders have come to an agreement to stop the government shutdown with Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell saying his party intended to consider legislation  "that would address DACA (the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), border security and related issues, as well as disaster relief". The funding will continue till the 8th February. The hope is that a permanent deal can be arranged by then to guarantee the remainder of government funding for the 2017/2018 financial year. DACA currently covers 700,000 'dreamers', children of illegal immigrants who have grown up in the US, know no other home, who are at risk of deportation if DACA is revoked.

Carolyn Fairbairn, the CBI Director General, called for an urgent "Jobs first" Brexit deal to be negotiated. The opinion of a significant number of business leaders is that the benefits of membership of the customs union currently exceed the likelihood of profits from future trade deals. Things may change, the thought is, but currently this is not the time to leave the EU. As Fairbairn put it:

"Looking at this hard choice around customs union or not, the value of our frictionless trade within the European Union is worth more than having the potentially unknown value of trade deals in other parts of the world."

Because not all members of the CBI agree with this, the CBI itself has to stay neutral on the issue. The government is still working on the basis that we will be leaving the single market and the customs union after EU exit day.

Potholes seem to be breeding again and the traffic news today was of a rather unusual hold up - a traffic jam away from Cambridge on the A10 by Milton. It was apparently caused by a pothole right in the carriageway. Curious, I grabbed my camera and walked up the A10 and along the traffic queue towards its nemesis. I eventually reached the front of the queue. A police car was pparked in the centre of the lane to prevent traffic hitting the hole. Possibly a meter and a half long, 50 cm wide and 15 cm deep at the edges, the hole was ideally placed to catch left hand wheels and cause damage or cause swerving into oncoming traffic, causing accidents. The PC came over saying that she couldn't in all conscience have driven away from the hole. Took my pictures and made my way back for breakfast.