UK at the Crumbling Brexit Cliff Edge

Two major cabinet ministers and several junior ministers resign. MPs in Parliament almost united in condemnation of the Prime Minister for over two hours. Jacob Rees-Mogg attempts to accelerate the cascade of letters to the chair of the Tory 1922 Committee, to reach the 48 letters to trigger a Tory leadership election.

Whatever you might think of her politics, hats off to Theresa May for remaining calm and collected on the outside as she patiently attempts to push through the withdrawal agreement with the EU.

There seems to be a lot of hot air being emitted on wanting to renegotiate a better deal. The EU sees this as the completed agreement, which they will agree to, if the UK can get its house in order. Renegotiation is not an option.

The Prime Minister sees the available choices as a trinary option, the proposed withdrawal agreement, a hard Brexit or not leaving the EU, with the emphasis on the first two. Sadly remaining is still not a major option in Parliament. So the gamble by her is - take my agreement or leap of the cliff into a hard Brexit.

We are at the edge of the crumbling Brexit cliff. Current voices seem to argue for 'Jump'.

Speculation Before the Storm? Cabinet Agrees to Draft Withdrawal Agreement -

It took five hours for the UK Cabinet to come to an agreement on accepting the Draft Withdrawal Agreement with the EU. Of the 23 ministers in the Cabinet, 11 spoke against it.

Even EU officials kept quiet, unwilling to inadvertently send the wrong signals till the cabinet reached its decision.

The withdrawal agreement includes a backstop where Northern Ireland would be treated as closer to the EU to prevent a border on the island and the UK would have to maintain custom arrangements on behalf of the EU.

There is now the speculation before the storm with three key questions:

• Can Theresa May get the Withdrawal agreement successfully through parliament?
• Will the Representatives of the other EU countries agree to the agreement  at an emergency meeting on the 25th November?
• Will the conservatives issue challenge to the Prime Minister's leadership?

More detailed evaluation of the Draft agreement will surface over the coming days as politicians and reporters work their way through the 583 page document and translate some of the issues into understandable language and concepts.

The Draft Brexit Agreement - Make or Break?

Tonight comes the news that the British Cabinet has been called in to hear the news and read the 500 page Draft Brexit Agreement, negotiated between the UK and the EU, on the transition arrangements due to come into force next March.

It engendered immediate:

• speculation from the Press
• cries of potential betrayal from the DUP of Northern Ireland who fear being the sacrificial lamb for a borderless Ireland
• reaction from hardline Brexiteers who deem it to be suffering vassalage (is that a word?) to the EU in all but name
• meeting by Remainers who see it a potential justification for a new people's vote as the promises of Brexit are shown to be tawdry lies
• Rejection from the Labour opposition - unless it meets all their demands

Both the UK Cabinet and the EU will be holding special separate meetings tomorrow at 14:00 h to seek backing from their respective cabinet members and country representatives.

The timing is particularly poignant as it is within a week of the WWI armistice centenary, which surely highlighted both the dangers of potential conflict, and the benefit of a Europe working together striving for peace.

At the same time, President Trump, who had seemed to be a more distant partner during the Armistice Centenary meeting of world leaders, and showed a luke-warm attitude to committing to commemorate the war dead of his own country, fell back to negative tweets on the host country France and it's President after he left. Perhaps the most tasteless one was:

Emmanuel Macron suggests building its own army to protect Europe against the U.S., China and Russia. But it was Germany in World Wars One & Two - How did that work out for France? They were starting to learn German in Paris before the U.S. came along. Pay for NATO or not!

Tory conference infighting diminishes trust in Brext negotiation ability

The Tory party conference simply demonstrates the inability of the party to see the brexit wood for the trees as it continues with infighting rather than dealing with serious negotiations on Brexit. Hard Brexiteers like Rees-Mogg and Boris point out the problems with the Chequers proposal yet ignore the business concerns and real actions by the car industry fearing a no deal exit.

The prime Minister sticks to the Chequers proposal, despite the EU and most of parliament regarding it as a dead duck. In addition, we have hard language and idiotic statements like that by Jeremy Hunt. Claiming that the EU was behaving like the Old Soviet Union, he managed not only to anger fellow conservatives in Germany, he alienated those former Eastern Bloc countries that were most sympathetic to the UK.

A great response by Vytenis Andriukaitis,
Dear @Jeremy_Hunt I was born in Soviet gulag and been imprisoned by KGB a few times in my life.
Happy to brief you on the main differences between #EU and Soviet Union. And also why we escaped the #USSR
Anytime. Whatever helps

The final proposals in negotiations are supposed to be completed mid October and presented to the EU in November. The risks of a hard Brexit continue to rise.

Labour rallies on snap election push and referendum. Hard Brexit more likely. Trump promotes isolationism.

The red rose of Labour was ascendant in the Arena in Liverpool (yes I know the picture is not of a rose), finishing with a rousing speech by his godliness Jeremy Corbyn. The key elements re Brexit from the Conference are that  a)  Labour will magnanimously support the government brexit plan if it meets the six Labour requirements. Otherwise b) it will be pushing for a snap election. And c) The party voted overwhelmingly to support a second referendum on any decision on Brexit, including the option of remaining in the EU.

Labours six tests are:

1. Fair migration system for UK business and communities
2. Retaining strong, collaborative relationship with EU
3. Protecting national security and tackling cross-border crime
4. Delivering for all nations and regions of the UK
5. Protecting workers' rights and employment protections
6. Ensuring same benefits currently enjoyed within single market

These are unlikley to all be met by a conservative Brexit at present as they can only seriously be met by staying within the EU. Even the promise of a customs union would still result in a border between the EU and the UK in Ireland as border checks would still have to be made.

A snap election would require around 6 weeks from announcement to voting, judging by the last one. Vince Cable had suggested a 12 week plan for a December 2018 Referendum when proposing it last year. Presumably this would put all negotiations with the EU on hold.

Meanwhile, the EU is looking for a final decision on the present negotiations by mid October, or November at the latest.

Since elections and/or referendum would delay negotiations, all this would suggest that the chances of a hard Brexit are dramatically increased unless the Brexit decisions can be pushed down the line.

How is it that rather than uniting to find a common solution to Brexit negotiations, the main UK political parties are more interested in their infighting and political power battles?!?

President Trump visited the UN today to chair a session. He raised an audible giggle from the audience when he repeated his mantra that he has achieved more to date than nearly any other President. He announced his opposition to globalism, a fundamental element of the UN, in favour of 'patriotism'. POTUS attacked China during a debate on Iran, accusing China of attempting to interfere with the 2018 US elections. Yet nowhere did he criticise Russia, despite that country's past record.

I only took all this in through a nebulous haze of a cold that is now receding. I look forward to a day where I don't spend most of my time in bed.

Rot sets in on Theresa's Chequers proposal at EU meeting.

Rot sets in on Chequers proposal

Prime Minister Theresa May's hopes were dashed today on the second day of the Salzburg EU conference. Her Chequers proposal was branded as unacceptable by the EU 27, despite warm noises made prior to the conference. She calls for the EU to compromise, the EU looks to her to provide a compromise. The Irish border is still the sticking issue, though on the bright side, both sides seem to think that 90% of all other points have been agreed.

Rejected by the EU and rejected by many in the Conservative party, the unrealistic Chequers proposal looks dead in the water. And with it, the Prime Minister is again in the crosshairs of those who seek to topple her.

With a positive agreement on the outlines of the UKs future relationship with the EU post Brexit  needed by mid October, or the very latest November, time is short, very short. The likelihood of a hard brexit has been raised again.

In-between work, I washed and sliced the tart President plums bought yesterday at Ely. They baked nicely on a yeast dough base and provided a tasty afternoon tea.

Six months to brexit without consensus. A sweet homemade distraction

St Apollonia

Six months to go to Brexit this week and Britain continues to subject itself to the indignities of the Conservative and Labour in-fighting. The Prime Minister Theresa May continues her attempt to persuade both the EU, her own party and the general public of the one true path - her Chequers proposal. The EU has already politely pointed out difficulties with it and the hard Brexiteers shout betrayal of the one true brexit.

Helpfully, the government has issued further publications on preparing for Brexit and the dangers of a hard brexit, bringing the total number up to 133. They are listed under the following headings:

• 30 are EU exit regulations
• 103 are Guidance
• 0 are Business advice

Thus clearly emphasizing that whilst we are all ultimately dependent on the UK economy and businesses are crying out for advice re Brexit, their concerns are at the bottom of the list. 

Quite frankly, despite the boyish enthusiasm of our new Brexit Minister and chief negotiator Dominic Raab, we seem to be heading inexorably towards a hard brexit and the application of WTO rules. A painful process to watch, looming ever closer like a dentists appointment for a root canal drilling.

The President across the Pond has shown himself to be a solemn representative of the people when commemorating the anniversary of 9/11, and then deluded when arguing that the release of the final death toll of the Puerto Rican hurricane disaster (3000+) was fake news. The US economy continues to grow despite the heightened trade sanctions of ever more goods from China.

We spent the last weekend first on a trip to London, visiting the Welcome collection and then the British Museum  before celebrating a family birthday. Then on Sunday, we took a walk along the guided busway between Oakington and Longstanton. I'd remembered good blackberrying along part of the route when cycling past on Friday. We picked blackberries and rose-hips and a few crab-apples on the way home, and I prepared crab-apple and bramble jam/cheese and rose-hip jelly.