May Two Thirds Vote Confidence Win but Internecine Conservative War Continues in Westminster Bubble

As I awoke in Germany, the news that there would be a conservative vote on confidence in the Prime Minister was just hitting the news. Back in the UK by the evening, the conservative MPs had voted with an almost two thirds majority that they had confidence in her.

Yet, rather than accept the decision and unite to find a solution best for the country, Westminster conservatives have resorted to its navel gazing in their political bubble. The hard line brexiteers still think she should resign and the continuing internecine war will weaken the ability of the government to function

So, in effect, this has all just been a distraction and the actual problem, the concern at all sides about the Backstop if negotiations fail, is still unresolved. With hardly a rest, the Prime Minister is going off to talk to the EU colleagues tomorrow. A hard brexit on WTO rules seems increasingly likely..

And the reaction in the EU when asked whether the UK had the most unstable government in Europe, one source according to the Guardian replied: “Is there a government in London actually?”

May´s Doomed Pilgrimage to Europe and WWII POW Memories of Kindness

The vote on the Withdrawal Agreement was called off until an unspecified later date - and hit even the headlines of the local paper here in Krefeld Germany this morning. During the day local and international media reported on The Stations of May´, as she travelled around Europe looking for some crumbs that might keep the sniping UK politicians at bay and give her deal a chance. Here in Germany, there was incomprehension as to why the Prime Minister thought she could get any changes on a done deal. Indeed the answers from national EU leaders and the EU negotiators themselves came in various shades of Non, Nein, and No.

As the day comes to a close, the conservative sharks were massing close to the critical 40 to instigate a leadership challenge and tomorrow may be another chaotic day.

The pound continues to gradually slide lower against the Euro and the Dollar.

It was therefore a relief and a pleasure to find myself listening to a former German prisoner of war earlier this afternoon, who, wounded at 18 shortly after being drafted in the dying stages of WWII, found himself in a POW camp near Ross on Wye in 1944.

His memories were of the kindness of local English strangers,  who politely stopped him and another POW and invited them to spend Christmas with their family; Who, after the war helped send parcels to his parents, refugees displaced from the East to what was to become West Germany; an English family that arranged for a taxi to collect him from the POW camp for a farewell visit before he finally returned to Germany after 4 years as a POW in the UK.

The heart warming thing is that these were not isolated incidents, but part of a greater humanity, shown in Britain to former enemies,  reported by many POWs of different nationalities, so immediately after a terrible war that showed the true and dark hazard of rampant nationalism.

Eve of the Brexit Vote Storm

It is strange being here in Germnay, where Brexit is relegated to only the occasional byline inside the local newspaper and has been totally absent until late last night from the TV news.  As I write, the Prime Minster, as far as I can glean from UK news sources, is still planning to put the vote on the Withdrawal agreement before parliament on tomorrow, with still currentl an almst certain defeat. Perhaps pigs can be taught to fly within the next 24 hours - I am watching with morbid interest as, in parallel, the pound continues it´s steady decline, at this moment at 1.115 Euros.

What did gain a mention on the local news today was the decision by the European Court that the UK could unilaterally withdraw from Brexit and stay within the EU. The most recent UK poll result on how people might vote in another referendum is still split 52%:48% remain:leave, but that was on the 6th December https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/?.

President Trump is also experiencing difficulties. Having decided to remove General Kelly as his Chief of Staff for trying to instill some level of sanity into the White House, the planned replacement, Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff, Nick Ayers, has decided not to take the post after talking to Trump. A worrying aside on the BBC Today program was the comment that apparently retired Generals Kelly and Mattis (Secretary of State for Defence) decided as far back as 2017 that one of them should always be in the country to monitor the president. So what happens now?

Here in Germany, the news is still full of the repercussions of the election of the new head of the CDU, Annagret Kramp-Karrenbauer, already nicknamed AKK in Germany and abroad. Whilst she and Merkel take a more considered, consultative and pragmatic aproach to reaching consensus, the CDU is still worried about regaining a distinct identity in a climate where the main political parties are losing the confidence - and votes - of the electorate.

Mays Lonely Path against the Economic Forecasts. Trump, GM and Cohen

What a surprise earlier this week when the Government issued its forecasts for the economy, assuming either that the withdrawal agreement is approved or that we actually go to the backstop. the best case scenario is that the economy in 15 years will be 3.9% worse off than if it stayed in the EU. The worst case - the reduction will be 9.3%. Yes our economy will still grow but definitely not as well as if we stay in the EU.

The Prime Minister of course uses this as the dire warning that parliament should vote for her withdrawal agreement to have the lesser of the two evils. Naturally, some of think that perhaps this is a strong hint that we should stay. Came across an interesting chart on the impact on other EU countries - see http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/The-economic-consequences-of-Brexit.pdf. Ireland is most impacted, affected almost as much as the UKin both instances. The Netherlands and Belgium are the next two most affected countries, but the effect is less than a quarter that experienced by the UK. But countries like Germany feel an impact that is a tenth of what we will experience.

Remarkably, with currently most of Parliament is against the Withdrawal Bill, whether Remainers or Brexiteers. The critical day will be 11th December when Parliament votes on the current agreement. But comeback May obviously hopes to turn Parliament around by then.

President Trump is also having a more challenging time too at the moment. General Motors is laying off 14,000 workers as they restructure as part of their long term planning for an electric and self driving future. His first response was to threaten to cut GM's subsidies, and then followed with the prospect of increasing tariffs on car imports.

And then President Trumps former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen admits in court that he had been lying out of misplaced  loyalty. Rather than ceasing to represent Trump in Russia in property negotiations to build a skyscraper there in January 2016, negotiations continued to June 2016, well into the Presidential campaign.

Trump remains bullish about not having done anything wrong - and currently there is no evidence of collusion with Russia to influence the Presidential elections.