May Two Thirds Vote Confidence Win but Internecine Conservative War Continues in Westminster Bubble

As I awoke in Germany, the news that there would be a conservative vote on confidence in the Prime Minister was just hitting the news. Back in the UK by the evening, the conservative MPs had voted with an almost two thirds majority that they had confidence in her.

Yet, rather than accept the decision and unite to find a solution best for the country, Westminster conservatives have resorted to its navel gazing in their political bubble. The hard line brexiteers still think she should resign and the continuing internecine war will weaken the ability of the government to function

So, in effect, this has all just been a distraction and the actual problem, the concern at all sides about the Backstop if negotiations fail, is still unresolved. With hardly a rest, the Prime Minister is going off to talk to the EU colleagues tomorrow. A hard brexit on WTO rules seems increasingly likely..

And the reaction in the EU when asked whether the UK had the most unstable government in Europe, one source according to the Guardian replied: “Is there a government in London actually?”

May´s Doomed Pilgrimage to Europe and WWII POW Memories of Kindness

The vote on the Withdrawal Agreement was called off until an unspecified later date - and hit even the headlines of the local paper here in Krefeld Germany this morning. During the day local and international media reported on The Stations of May´, as she travelled around Europe looking for some crumbs that might keep the sniping UK politicians at bay and give her deal a chance. Here in Germany, there was incomprehension as to why the Prime Minister thought she could get any changes on a done deal. Indeed the answers from national EU leaders and the EU negotiators themselves came in various shades of Non, Nein, and No.

As the day comes to a close, the conservative sharks were massing close to the critical 40 to instigate a leadership challenge and tomorrow may be another chaotic day.

The pound continues to gradually slide lower against the Euro and the Dollar.

It was therefore a relief and a pleasure to find myself listening to a former German prisoner of war earlier this afternoon, who, wounded at 18 shortly after being drafted in the dying stages of WWII, found himself in a POW camp near Ross on Wye in 1944.

His memories were of the kindness of local English strangers,  who politely stopped him and another POW and invited them to spend Christmas with their family; Who, after the war helped send parcels to his parents, refugees displaced from the East to what was to become West Germany; an English family that arranged for a taxi to collect him from the POW camp for a farewell visit before he finally returned to Germany after 4 years as a POW in the UK.

The heart warming thing is that these were not isolated incidents, but part of a greater humanity, shown in Britain to former enemies,  reported by many POWs of different nationalities, so immediately after a terrible war that showed the true and dark hazard of rampant nationalism.

Eve of the Brexit Vote Storm

It is strange being here in Germnay, where Brexit is relegated to only the occasional byline inside the local newspaper and has been totally absent until late last night from the TV news.  As I write, the Prime Minster, as far as I can glean from UK news sources, is still planning to put the vote on the Withdrawal agreement before parliament on tomorrow, with still currentl an almst certain defeat. Perhaps pigs can be taught to fly within the next 24 hours - I am watching with morbid interest as, in parallel, the pound continues it´s steady decline, at this moment at 1.115 Euros.

What did gain a mention on the local news today was the decision by the European Court that the UK could unilaterally withdraw from Brexit and stay within the EU. The most recent UK poll result on how people might vote in another referendum is still split 52%:48% remain:leave, but that was on the 6th December https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/?.

President Trump is also experiencing difficulties. Having decided to remove General Kelly as his Chief of Staff for trying to instill some level of sanity into the White House, the planned replacement, Vice President Mike Pence's chief of staff, Nick Ayers, has decided not to take the post after talking to Trump. A worrying aside on the BBC Today program was the comment that apparently retired Generals Kelly and Mattis (Secretary of State for Defence) decided as far back as 2017 that one of them should always be in the country to monitor the president. So what happens now?

Here in Germany, the news is still full of the repercussions of the election of the new head of the CDU, Annagret Kramp-Karrenbauer, already nicknamed AKK in Germany and abroad. Whilst she and Merkel take a more considered, consultative and pragmatic aproach to reaching consensus, the CDU is still worried about regaining a distinct identity in a climate where the main political parties are losing the confidence - and votes - of the electorate.

Mays Lonely Path against the Economic Forecasts. Trump, GM and Cohen

What a surprise earlier this week when the Government issued its forecasts for the economy, assuming either that the withdrawal agreement is approved or that we actually go to the backstop. the best case scenario is that the economy in 15 years will be 3.9% worse off than if it stayed in the EU. The worst case - the reduction will be 9.3%. Yes our economy will still grow but definitely not as well as if we stay in the EU.

The Prime Minister of course uses this as the dire warning that parliament should vote for her withdrawal agreement to have the lesser of the two evils. Naturally, some of think that perhaps this is a strong hint that we should stay. Came across an interesting chart on the impact on other EU countries - see http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/The-economic-consequences-of-Brexit.pdf. Ireland is most impacted, affected almost as much as the UKin both instances. The Netherlands and Belgium are the next two most affected countries, but the effect is less than a quarter that experienced by the UK. But countries like Germany feel an impact that is a tenth of what we will experience.

Remarkably, with currently most of Parliament is against the Withdrawal Bill, whether Remainers or Brexiteers. The critical day will be 11th December when Parliament votes on the current agreement. But comeback May obviously hopes to turn Parliament around by then.

President Trump is also having a more challenging time too at the moment. General Motors is laying off 14,000 workers as they restructure as part of their long term planning for an electric and self driving future. His first response was to threaten to cut GM's subsidies, and then followed with the prospect of increasing tariffs on car imports.

And then President Trumps former lawyer and fixer Michael Cohen admits in court that he had been lying out of misplaced  loyalty. Rather than ceasing to represent Trump in Russia in property negotiations to build a skyscraper there in January 2016, negotiations continued to June 2016, well into the Presidential campaign.

Trump remains bullish about not having done anything wrong - and currently there is no evidence of collusion with Russia to influence the Presidential elections.

Sad Day as EU Leaders sign off the UK Withdrawal Agreement

A momentous and truly sad day for anyone who believes in the benefits of the UK within the EU.

The EU Leaders and Prime Minister Theresa May signed off the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement in Brussels today. The message being a mixed one of sadness that it has come to this and pointed comments that this is the one and only withdrawal deal.

The Prime Minister now has a fortnight to persuade Parliament and the British Public to back her deal at a crucial parliamentary vote.

The view from der Spiegel is that the EU has achieved it's objectives, unity among its members for the negotiation process and avoiding letting the UK cherry pick.

The Prime minister, in contrast, is having to battle against opposition not only from the Opposition, but brexiteers AND remainers in her party.

Seeing the chaos that simply trying to agree a withdrawal agreement created, it does not bode well for any future trade negotiations with the EU after the first phase of withdrawal by the UK in March.

May, Brexit and Gibraltar. Whitehouse dismisses own climate change report

Internal politics in Spain meant that it raised concerns about Gibraltar ebing tied in to the Withdrawal Agreement between the UK and the EU, to be signed off by the Eu tomorrow, Sunday. In the past (as far back as Dec 2017) the EU had agreed that Gibraltars future was to be decided in negotiations between the UK and Spain. There was therefore frustration that the point had been raised as a potential for Spain to not agree to the EU part of the deal tomorrow.

Last minute talks between Theresa May, Juncker and  officials on both sides led to a confirmation from the UK that Gibraltar would not necessarily be covered by a future trade deal with the EU.

Politically, however, voices in the UK are arguing that the Prime Minister has caved in to demands from the EU again, putting her under pressure She continues to face considerable opposition to her withdrawal deal with the EU from all UK political corners.

So there is already talk that, whilst the EU 27 will agree to the Withdrawal agreement tomorrow, they are also preparing a plan B in case the UK parliament votes against the agreement in a fortnight. The Prime Minister is taking her call for support for the agreement directly to the public.

President Trump pardoned the traditional Turkey on thanksgiving and also comes to an agreement with the Mexicans about the caravan of thousands of refugees that are at teh Mexico-US border. They will be kept in Mexico, whist their asylum/immigration applications are processed.

All this has taken the focus away from the major part 2 of a significant federal multi-departmental report on climate change that concluded that the US would suffer significantly (shrinking the economy and costing hundreds of billions of dollars by the end of the century) because of climate change. Reality avoiding President Trump and the Whitehouse downplayed the report. Their strategy of burying the item appears to have worked.

Fungal Brexit - Eruption, Deliquescence, Regeneration?

Barely born and already falling apart? Missing the bus? This morning the media were waiting for more cabinet resignations, notably Michael Gove. In a radio phone in with the Prime Minister, once caller exhorts her to admit failure, give up and resign.

By this afternoon, we have new cabinet ministers, including a brexiteer and an May supporters (always trying to maintain the balance to reflect the wider divisions in the Tory party).

So far, Theresa May not only survives but appears to be regaining ground. The Withdrawal agreement is still an anathema to nearly all of parliament, but, with the EU saying there will be no new renegotiations, only minor adjustments, could it slowly inveigle itself as the only solution? It might be better than a hard brexit, but I'd still prefer to remain in the EU and have a say.

President Trump suffers a minor setback as a judge orders the reinstatement of CNN reporter Jim Acosta's White House press pass which the President had revoked. Hilariously, The President says he is looking to create "rules and regulations" for how White House reporters act. He says "you have to practice decorum" at the White House. Let's hope he follows his own advice.

I was following the situation in the morning and afternoon cycle rides to and from St Ives, but only with half an ear. My main attention was gripped by the eruption of hundreds of Shaggy Ink Cap mushrooms. This is the first time for years that an opportunity for fungal foraging came my way. While very satisfying in terms of the harvest of young fresh white caps, the reality is that Shaggy Ink Caps have a delicate flavour - that is do not taste very much alone but are used as a flavour enhancer, for example with eggs. Have created some reduced frozen boullions for future use.

UK at the Crumbling Brexit Cliff Edge

Two major cabinet ministers and several junior ministers resign. MPs in Parliament almost united in condemnation of the Prime Minister for over two hours. Jacob Rees-Mogg attempts to accelerate the cascade of letters to the chair of the Tory 1922 Committee, to reach the 48 letters to trigger a Tory leadership election.

Whatever you might think of her politics, hats off to Theresa May for remaining calm and collected on the outside as she patiently attempts to push through the withdrawal agreement with the EU.

There seems to be a lot of hot air being emitted on wanting to renegotiate a better deal. The EU sees this as the completed agreement, which they will agree to, if the UK can get its house in order. Renegotiation is not an option.

The Prime Minister sees the available choices as a trinary option, the proposed withdrawal agreement, a hard Brexit or not leaving the EU, with the emphasis on the first two. Sadly remaining is still not a major option in Parliament. So the gamble by her is - take my agreement or leap of the cliff into a hard Brexit.

We are at the edge of the crumbling Brexit cliff. Current voices seem to argue for 'Jump'.

Speculation Before the Storm? Cabinet Agrees to Draft Withdrawal Agreement -

It took five hours for the UK Cabinet to come to an agreement on accepting the Draft Withdrawal Agreement with the EU. Of the 23 ministers in the Cabinet, 11 spoke against it.

Even EU officials kept quiet, unwilling to inadvertently send the wrong signals till the cabinet reached its decision.

The withdrawal agreement includes a backstop where Northern Ireland would be treated as closer to the EU to prevent a border on the island and the UK would have to maintain custom arrangements on behalf of the EU.

There is now the speculation before the storm with three key questions:

• Can Theresa May get the Withdrawal agreement successfully through parliament?
• Will the Representatives of the other EU countries agree to the agreement  at an emergency meeting on the 25th November?
• Will the conservatives issue challenge to the Prime Minister's leadership?

More detailed evaluation of the Draft agreement will surface over the coming days as politicians and reporters work their way through the 583 page document and translate some of the issues into understandable language and concepts.

The Draft Brexit Agreement - Make or Break?

Tonight comes the news that the British Cabinet has been called in to hear the news and read the 500 page Draft Brexit Agreement, negotiated between the UK and the EU, on the transition arrangements due to come into force next March.

It engendered immediate:

• speculation from the Press
• cries of potential betrayal from the DUP of Northern Ireland who fear being the sacrificial lamb for a borderless Ireland
• reaction from hardline Brexiteers who deem it to be suffering vassalage (is that a word?) to the EU in all but name
• meeting by Remainers who see it a potential justification for a new people's vote as the promises of Brexit are shown to be tawdry lies
• Rejection from the Labour opposition - unless it meets all their demands

Both the UK Cabinet and the EU will be holding special separate meetings tomorrow at 14:00 h to seek backing from their respective cabinet members and country representatives.

The timing is particularly poignant as it is within a week of the WWI armistice centenary, which surely highlighted both the dangers of potential conflict, and the benefit of a Europe working together striving for peace.

At the same time, President Trump, who had seemed to be a more distant partner during the Armistice Centenary meeting of world leaders, and showed a luke-warm attitude to committing to commemorate the war dead of his own country, fell back to negative tweets on the host country France and it's President after he left. Perhaps the most tasteless one was:

Emmanuel Macron suggests building its own army to protect Europe against the U.S., China and Russia. But it was Germany in World Wars One & Two - How did that work out for France? They were starting to learn German in Paris before the U.S. came along. Pay for NATO or not!

Tory conference infighting diminishes trust in Brext negotiation ability

The Tory party conference simply demonstrates the inability of the party to see the brexit wood for the trees as it continues with infighting rather than dealing with serious negotiations on Brexit. Hard Brexiteers like Rees-Mogg and Boris point out the problems with the Chequers proposal yet ignore the business concerns and real actions by the car industry fearing a no deal exit.

The prime Minister sticks to the Chequers proposal, despite the EU and most of parliament regarding it as a dead duck. In addition, we have hard language and idiotic statements like that by Jeremy Hunt. Claiming that the EU was behaving like the Old Soviet Union, he managed not only to anger fellow conservatives in Germany, he alienated those former Eastern Bloc countries that were most sympathetic to the UK.

A great response by Vytenis Andriukaitis,
Dear @Jeremy_Hunt I was born in Soviet gulag and been imprisoned by KGB a few times in my life.
Happy to brief you on the main differences between #EU and Soviet Union. And also why we escaped the #USSR
Anytime. Whatever helps

The final proposals in negotiations are supposed to be completed mid October and presented to the EU in November. The risks of a hard Brexit continue to rise.

Labour rallies on snap election push and referendum. Hard Brexit more likely. Trump promotes isolationism.

The red rose of Labour was ascendant in the Arena in Liverpool (yes I know the picture is not of a rose), finishing with a rousing speech by his godliness Jeremy Corbyn. The key elements re Brexit from the Conference are that  a)  Labour will magnanimously support the government brexit plan if it meets the six Labour requirements. Otherwise b) it will be pushing for a snap election. And c) The party voted overwhelmingly to support a second referendum on any decision on Brexit, including the option of remaining in the EU.

Labours six tests are:

1. Fair migration system for UK business and communities
2. Retaining strong, collaborative relationship with EU
3. Protecting national security and tackling cross-border crime
4. Delivering for all nations and regions of the UK
5. Protecting workers' rights and employment protections
6. Ensuring same benefits currently enjoyed within single market

These are unlikley to all be met by a conservative Brexit at present as they can only seriously be met by staying within the EU. Even the promise of a customs union would still result in a border between the EU and the UK in Ireland as border checks would still have to be made.

A snap election would require around 6 weeks from announcement to voting, judging by the last one. Vince Cable had suggested a 12 week plan for a December 2018 Referendum when proposing it last year. Presumably this would put all negotiations with the EU on hold.

Meanwhile, the EU is looking for a final decision on the present negotiations by mid October, or November at the latest.

Since elections and/or referendum would delay negotiations, all this would suggest that the chances of a hard Brexit are dramatically increased unless the Brexit decisions can be pushed down the line.

How is it that rather than uniting to find a common solution to Brexit negotiations, the main UK political parties are more interested in their infighting and political power battles?!?

President Trump visited the UN today to chair a session. He raised an audible giggle from the audience when he repeated his mantra that he has achieved more to date than nearly any other President. He announced his opposition to globalism, a fundamental element of the UN, in favour of 'patriotism'. POTUS attacked China during a debate on Iran, accusing China of attempting to interfere with the 2018 US elections. Yet nowhere did he criticise Russia, despite that country's past record.

I only took all this in through a nebulous haze of a cold that is now receding. I look forward to a day where I don't spend most of my time in bed.

Rot sets in on Theresa's Chequers proposal at EU meeting.

Rot sets in on Chequers proposal

Prime Minister Theresa May's hopes were dashed today on the second day of the Salzburg EU conference. Her Chequers proposal was branded as unacceptable by the EU 27, despite warm noises made prior to the conference. She calls for the EU to compromise, the EU looks to her to provide a compromise. The Irish border is still the sticking issue, though on the bright side, both sides seem to think that 90% of all other points have been agreed.

Rejected by the EU and rejected by many in the Conservative party, the unrealistic Chequers proposal looks dead in the water. And with it, the Prime Minister is again in the crosshairs of those who seek to topple her.

With a positive agreement on the outlines of the UKs future relationship with the EU post Brexit  needed by mid October, or the very latest November, time is short, very short. The likelihood of a hard brexit has been raised again.

In-between work, I washed and sliced the tart President plums bought yesterday at Ely. They baked nicely on a yeast dough base and provided a tasty afternoon tea.

Six months to brexit without consensus. A sweet homemade distraction

St Apollonia

Six months to go to Brexit this week and Britain continues to subject itself to the indignities of the Conservative and Labour in-fighting. The Prime Minister Theresa May continues her attempt to persuade both the EU, her own party and the general public of the one true path - her Chequers proposal. The EU has already politely pointed out difficulties with it and the hard Brexiteers shout betrayal of the one true brexit.

Helpfully, the government has issued further publications on preparing for Brexit and the dangers of a hard brexit, bringing the total number up to 133. They are listed under the following headings:

• 30 are EU exit regulations
• 103 are Guidance
• 0 are Business advice

Thus clearly emphasizing that whilst we are all ultimately dependent on the UK economy and businesses are crying out for advice re Brexit, their concerns are at the bottom of the list. 

Quite frankly, despite the boyish enthusiasm of our new Brexit Minister and chief negotiator Dominic Raab, we seem to be heading inexorably towards a hard brexit and the application of WTO rules. A painful process to watch, looming ever closer like a dentists appointment for a root canal drilling.

The President across the Pond has shown himself to be a solemn representative of the people when commemorating the anniversary of 9/11, and then deluded when arguing that the release of the final death toll of the Puerto Rican hurricane disaster (3000+) was fake news. The US economy continues to grow despite the heightened trade sanctions of ever more goods from China.

We spent the last weekend first on a trip to London, visiting the Welcome collection and then the British Museum  before celebrating a family birthday. Then on Sunday, we took a walk along the guided busway between Oakington and Longstanton. I'd remembered good blackberrying along part of the route when cycling past on Friday. We picked blackberries and rose-hips and a few crab-apples on the way home, and I prepared crab-apple and bramble jam/cheese and rose-hip jelly.

Brexit Minister releases first 25 'Preparing for a No Deal Brexit' papers. Trump unimpeachable.

cream on top of trifle

I joined a meeting of the South East Cambs For Europe last night, who are actively campaigning locally for a people's vote on the final brexit deal or even, heaven forbid, it looks like we are going for a no deal brexit.

The timing was appropriate as today, Dominic Raab, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, announced the release of the first 25 papers on how different sectors of the UKshould prepare for the event of a no deeal Brexit.

The elements required 'to mitigate risks' that caught my eye were:

• Businesses being asked to prepare for added administrative HMRC steps when WTO trade conditions set in for imports and exports.
• Pharmacies being asked to stock up with several weeks of medicines originating from the EU.
• New Science and EU Student support being excluded from access to EU funding after March 2019.
• Small online purchases coming from the EU could be liable for VAT.

The main beneficiaries will be the additional 7000 plus administrators roped in to help deal with the extra red tape. More papers to be released over the coming month.

Whilst the hypnotically calm voice of Dominic Raab introduced the papers in soothing voice and with the assurance that of course we still hoped for a deal, Chancellor Philip Hammond dropped his own spoiler. He stated that the UK economy would suffer by up to 8%, whichever Brexit happened.

Good news from the US. According to President Trump, he cannot be impeached because the US, nay, the world economy would crash - after all, he has achieved so much more than any other president.

Teflon President's Associates Guilty as Fraudsters. A Peacock Wing Puzzle

Well, it was not a good day for Trump, with guilty charges and pleas from two of his former associates for illegal dealings and fraud. It must have been bad as the President didn't tweet on the issue for 12h. The issues might seem convoluted to an outsider - and possibly the President himself. I've tried to get them clear in my head below.

Paul Manafort, the presidents former campaign manager, was declared guilty on 8 of the 18 counts put against him. He was found to have submitted false foreign income declarations during the period where he acted as a consultant for the then pro Russian Ukrainian president and was paid tens of millions of dollars. Then, when the Ukraine money ran out, he used false declarations to achieve loans in millions of dollars from banks. His sentence could be for up to 60 years, according to US media, but was more likely to be between 8 to 10 years.

All these activities pre-date his involvement with the Trump campaign and the president praised Manafort on Twitter today after a long silence, for his refusal to 'break' under intense pressure and 'invent' stories about Trump.

President Trumps former longstanding lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty on charges of violating campaign finance laws, the latter done at the direction of "the candidate", for the "principal purpose of influencing [the] election". The payments were hush money paid to two women with whom Trump allegedly had affairs. Cohen also pleaded guilty to million dollar amounts of tax evasion. With his plea bargain, Cohen could see his sentence from reduced from 65 years to five years and three months, according to the BBC.

President Trump does not like Michael Cohen anymore but also thinks that the campaign payment violations were not a crime, as others like Obama had made them too in the past. Almost a reasonable argument until you find out that the Obama violation was due to delays of declaring donations made by others to the campaign within a required 48h period. The actions were not deliberately hidden and the donations were declared, so this was a civil offence. Cohen, on the other hand, deliberately chose to make payments (whether alone or under instruction) and keep them secret, making this a criminal offence.

But will the mud stick on the irascible Teflon President? Not yet.  Perhaps at some point in the future, all the accumulated inconsistencies and dealings will slowly add up even for his core electoral base -  until a small final addition causes a tipping point and a rapid fall from grace.

In-between work and other distractions, I finally managed to edit the image of a Peacock butterfly fore-wing. Over 3000 photographs taken, to create 103 focus stacks, which were then joined into one panorama. The final panorama had one small gap near the front edge of the wing in a dark area, after the poor Hugin panorama software had tried to assemble the full wing over the best part of a day. Today, I manually fitted in the missing piece. Ironically, I had to down-sample the image so that you can see it above. The level of detail is reflected in a small section of the image shown below. See if you can work out where it should fit.

Calm before the BrexiTrump storms. Soyuz and Gliding.

Whilst President Trump's tweets have gradually lost their interest factor due to the almost predictable Good Guys - Bad Guys rhetoric, critical changes could be in the air this week. The accumulation of court cases and investigations is set to reach at least one litmus test in the immediate future. Will Paul Manafort, his onetime campaign chairman, be sentenced to a life in prison or will he walk free, after a case investigating apparently shady financial dealings with Ukraine politicians and fraud charges.

In the UK, senior cabinet members have been beavering away over the Summer, attempting to sweet talk a range of EU leaders into agreeing that the Prime Minister's Chequers deal is a reasonable option, especially when compared to the looming prospect of a No Deal Brexit. With the latter now having a 50:50 chance of occurring, the government has promised to release a whole range of papers this Thursday, advising how different sectors and presumably the general population should prepare for a hard Brexit, just in case.

Meanwhile the pound meanders slowly downwards against the Euro (at €1.11 today), and financially troubled Turkey becomes a desirable holiday destination as holidays there are still cheap.

As ever, life still goes on. We traveled to Peterborough on Thursday to see the Soyuz capsule that returned UK Astronaut Tim Peake home. It was displayed in the left wing of Peterborough Cathedral and drew a steady crown of the curious. The fire scarred exterior, ancient and robust wiring and cramped inner space brought home the perils of spaceflight, at a fatality rate of 1% to date.

Yesterday evening, after the rain had cleared the air, you could apparently see the reflections from London's Shard, 60 miles away up in a glider. I missed that view as I was concentrating on trying to keep the glider nose at the right trim whilst conducting straight-line flight and simple left and right turns under the watchful eyes of experienced pilots. I flew in two different two-seaters with dual controls. The first was a modern design, with the pilot sitting behind the passenger. The glide ratio was about 46:1. The second glider was a 1950s open cockpit, wooden model, the Bluebell, with a glide ratio of around 20:1. Pilot and passenger sat side by side. Even to an inexperienced passenger, the flight characteristics were very different when allowed to handle the joy stick. Despite the disconcerting element of having to wear a parachute, gliding is relatively safe, with a probability of fatality of 0.7 per 100,000 flights. This is a lot safer than driving in the UK, where the number of fatalities is about 5.1 per 100,000. The flights themselves were much safer than the drive to and from the airport!

UK White Paper scrapes through parliament but founders against EU wall

Engineering Train at Ely

The government continue to have a battle on it's hand, both with itself and in Parliament as the soft Brexit supporters attempted to introduce their amendments.

It is perhaps a sign of the bitterness and close balance between different approached to Brexit, that the conservativ e chief whip felt he could press Tory MPs to renege on their pairing deals. Pairing deals have been a respected route for MPs who cannot attend a particular parliamentary sitting, to pair with one of the opposition, effectively cancelling their vote.

LibDem MP Jo Swinson, who was on maternity leave, must have felt particularly aggrieved on the betrayal of that trust by her agreed partner on the Tory side, party chairman, Brandon Lewis. He did claim afterwards that he had handled in error in the heat of the moment and apologised. However, when the government wins by the skin of its teeth with a couple of votes, the pressure to break rules, written or unspoken, is obviously very great.

Mind you, it is all political pissing in the wind, a senseless struggle for dominance in internal politics with scant regard for the reality outside. When the governments white paper was presented to the EU negotiators, their was a polite interest as a starting point, but a gentle reminder that it did not meet EU requirements on mobility within the EU market and the need for no hard border on Ireland. The EU had also released their white paper asking member states to consider preparing for a hard brexit or crah out by the UK. Whatever concessions have to be made to the EU by UK negotiators led by Dominic Raab will re-ignite the internal UK battles and likely shoot the amended document down on its return to parliament.

The pound-euro rate is a realistic barometer of how things are progressing and they do not look favourable - the value of the pound has dropped to €1.12.

We have had the second of two new book titles arrive back from the printer this week, 'Sons of Scotland' is now completed, a week after 'Alzheimers - My Turn Next'. I travelled to Ely twice on the train this week. The second time, I took my bike on the train so I could cycle to an appointment at the other end. A great way to travel, at least during off-peak times.

Trump Completes Elephant in China Shop Foreign Trip in Helsinki. May's Chequers Brexit Plans Damaged

First, the good news, to quote one report - The President is returning from his foreign policy trip abroad. The bad news, he lent more credence to the statements of President Vladimir Putin than his own American security agencies and military and private advisers. Russian interference in the US elections, the invasion of Crimea, the poisoning of the Skripals and innocent civilians in the UK with Novichok, all appear to mean nothing in comparison to Mano a Mano male bonding of one world leader and a wannabee. Though now it is not clear who is who.

There must be serious considerations going on in European and Nato capitals about whether the US can really be trusted with their own security information anymore. Even some Republicans in the US are aghast at the elephant in a china shop approach of their president to foreign policy.

The Prime Minister had to accept several amendments to her Chequers Brexit plans that were submitted by brexiteers. Outrage in parliament. The amendments just squeeked through by a couple of votes. Brexiteers are crowing that they believe that this might have killed off the Chequers deal once it is presented to the EU.

The political excitement of the day barely served to rouse me from the apathy after a busy weekend (and a migraine). We took it easy as the hot summer continues.

Trump Destabilises and Antagonises UK. May Asserts Herself. Our Open Studio Suffers Sport and Heat

Artwork 'Amoeba'

I've deliberately left a couple of days to cover the Trump visit to the UK as his position is constantly changing as he plays his destabilisation card again. It began with an interview with The Sun where he intimated that the White Paper, that Prime Minister Theresa May had negotiated with her cabinet, would mean the that the UK could not get a trade deal with the US. He also praised Boris Johnson. Apparently the news came out just as he was sitting down with Theresa May for dinner at Chequers. The next day he was all charm and praise for the Prime Minister in her presence. His visit evinced major demonstrations against him in London, Edinburgh and near his Scottish golf club, where  70% of the populations views him unfavourably.

His whole visit became major news, and again left his hosts wondering in which direction he was going to jump next. Tellingly, it was against the EU, Russia and China, all described as Foes before he set off on his flight to meet President Putin of Russia in Helsinki.

Prime Minister May appears to have weathered both the storm of the Trump visit AND the resignations of Johnson and David Davis from her cabinet. Major Brexiteers are beginning to make noises, but it looks as if the PM is relying on the fact that she is the only one with concrete proposals in the White Paper.

Our days before the Weekend were spent in final preparations for our first Cambridge Open Studio Weekend. Which arrived with a blaze of heat, the World Cup and Wimbledon Finals, The Duxford Airshow and the Big Weekend in Cambridge. Visitor numbers were therefore low compared to previous years. Sales were low, but we were rewarded with some interesting conversations and unexpected shared interests with visitors.

The Amoeba sculpture relied on visitors to animate it, which they did with a little encouragement, resulting in the gif animation above.

Our hopes for a bit of rain and a cooler next weekend to bring out the visitors appears to be disappearing , if the changing weather forecast is any thing to go by.

Trumpeting and Misinformation at the NATO summit.

Fisherman's tales?

President Trump lands in Brussels for the NATO meeting and launches two broadsides. One, that the other NATO countries should up their contributions as at present the US was paying for their security. Two, that Germany was totally under Russian control due to a 60 to 70% dependency of its energy supplies from Russia.

The call for the other NATO members to spend more on their military budget (2% of their GDP) is an old one already made by President Obama, and NATO countries are responding. The number of countries spending 2% of their GDP on defence will increase from 3 to 8 in 2018. It should be noted that the large US spending on it's military in Europe is in part due to the convenience/necessity to have bases that are closer geographically to theatres where the US has a military influence.

The accusation of German total dependency on Russia for energy is just crass and inaccurate, as any fact checker will tell you. What's more, as Angela Merkel gently pointed out, she had the experience of what it had been like to live in East Germany, dependent on Russia, and knew that she was now enjoying living in a free united Germany that could make its own decisions.

The suspicion is that this confrontational approach is on the one hand primarily directed at the home voters, and on the other intended to push for a deal. Fortunately, this time the US remained committed to the principles of NATO and supporting it.

Other news of the day, England lost against Croatia in the semifinals - news coverage expected to return to normal in the next few days.

Today, we cleared out the garage and repaired the holes in the whiteboards to be used for our Cambridge Open Studios exhibition this weekend. I also completed the mounts for the first run of lino-prints and prepasred the 25+ individual units for my planned mobile, interactive sculpture.

British Politics Navel Gazing after BoJo and David Davis Depart.

Summer over the Ouse.

Today I've been aroused out of my Brexitrump apathy. Boris has decided to forgo 'polishing the turd' of Prime Minister May's Chequers agreement on a softer Brexit negotiating position. Instead, the proverbial excrement is hitting the fan with the Tory Party in disarray. However, Brexiteers have not accumulated enough votes within the Tory party for a leadership challenge. So, David Davis and Boris Johnson are out of Government.

All this internal wrangling is a bit like fiddling while Rome burns. This in a week where the UK is supposed to be a sensible partner in a major NATO meeting later this week; the Prime Minister needs to meet with Angela Merkel and welcome President Trump to the UK. The President Trump that plans to remonstrate with NATO and then go on for a personal meeting with President Putin in Russia. This, after in a UK citizen dies due to inadvertent exposure to the nerve agent Novichock, which the UK, supposedly a US ally, believes was left over from a Russia orchestrated attack on a former Russian spy.

So Britain continues to drift like a rudderless ship towards a possible hard Brexit.

We currently have far more pressing issues on our minds than the mere collapse of British politics as we know it: We are in the final stages of planning our Cambridge Open Studio, opening this coming weekend.

Is Trumps Child Separation a Tool to Turn Family Expulsion into a benefit? Conversations on a Train.

Evening reflections on the Cam

A mixed bag for President Trump today. There is growing dismay and anger in the US about the administration's policy to criminalise illegal immigrants, thus leading to the separation of parents and children.  Indeed, Attorney Jeff Sessions has come under fire from 600 members of the United Methodist Church have have issued a formal complaint against memberof the church Attorney General Jeff Sessions, charging that he is violating church rules with his zero tolerance on immigration and possibly being responsible for abuse.

The president has initially refused to back down, even stating that it is necessary to separate children from their parents whilst simultaneously, and inaccurately, blaming the democrats for the consequences of what is in reality an effect of his administrations policy. He also charged the atmosphere further by stating that immigrants "infest our country".

The most recent comment is that he will be seeking to be able to deport illegal immigrants as families. This now begs the question whether the extreme and cruel nature of the child separation issue might have been a policy to shift public perception of immigration in the direction of a hardline policy. Then when he speaks of deporting whole families, it appears as a benefit, not a hardening of rules/actions.

Traveled to London today for a Quekett Committee Meeting and a Gossip meeting, the latter on hand-lenses and suitable subjects for them. The journey there was leavened by chatting to a family taking a young child to St Ormond Street Hospital for a checkup; the journey back shortened by learning of the gentler side of a couple who were both with the police and in the throes of renovating a future dream home.

Arriving back at Cambridge North, I unlocked the bike and rode home by taking the slightly longer road and path along the rivcer/

Melania's Follow all Laws but Govern with a Heart. May's £20bn NHS promise. Visiting Oxburgh Hall.

Popularity going up or down?

The growing outcry about the nearly 2000 children of illegal immigrants being separated from their parents took some unusual turns. Whilst the action appears to be a direct result of the Trump administration making all immigrants liable to a criminal prosecution, the President himself has repeatedly blamed the Democrats for the situation! Comments during an interview also appeared to give the impression that he was using the problem as a negotiating tool on immigration with the Democrats. Then today I hear that Melania Trump issued a statement broadly agreeing on the need to control immigration but ending with:
“Mrs. Trump hates to see children separated from their families and hopes both sides of the aisle can finally come together to achieve successful immigration reform. She believes we need to be a country that follows all laws, but also a country that governs with a heart.”

Meanwhile Prime Minister Theresa May issued a promise of an additional £20bn a year towards the funding of the NHS (a 3.4% rise), partly as a direct benefit of Brexit - a so-called Brexit Dividend. On current figures, The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that even the government had accepted that an immediate post-Brexit boost to UK available funding would not happen. However, the taxpayer might be willing to suffer the necessary tax rises to cover the costs of the NHS. The government looks ahead to another turbulent week in parliament on Brexit related voting.

We spent the day with visiting Dutch friends on a trip to Oxburgh Hall. It was also a costume day there and we learned that every mediaeval person carried a spoon around with them, from the pewter spoon of the lord of the manor to the wooden spoons of the cook. We tasted oatmeal flapjacks and potage, and also had a potted history of the Hall and its changing fortunes from the scribe of a mediaeval merchant. After admiring different handmade wallpapers, paintings, documents, Mary Queen of Scots' embroidery done whilst in captivity, and the priests hole, we completed the day with a meal at the Bridge pub at Clayhithe.

Trump Policies Punish China and 1,995 Children. Networking, Photography, African Names and Stracciatella

Having single-handedly solved the North Korean problem, rapped the knuckles of his western partners by imposing steel and aluminium tariffs,
President Trump is now tackling the US' intellectual property theft by China, with a 25% tariff on 1300 goods. China has said that it will retaliate.

The claim that the US loses intellectual property to China is not a new one recent studies suggest the value is $50bn.

Preconceptions about China do apparently lag behind reality. a report by "The Diplomat" suggest that China has been tightening is patent protection and IP laws. As a result, foreign firms bringing cases to court in China have a similar success rate (in excess of 70%) to that of Chinese domestic companies. The difficulty, especially for smaller companies , is the cost of providing evidence and paying for the court cases.

Both sides are likely to lose out in a trade war. Is the benefit of this action again a message to the domestic US audience that the president keeps his promises - and please reelect me when the time comes?

President Trumps harder policy on immigration, especially at the border with Mexico, has now lead to 1,995 children being separated from their parents and going into camps/care. This is a direct result of adult immigrants crossing the land border being placed in custody. Children with them are taken into care.

With my bicycle back in action, I set off on my networking day to St Ives, covering half the distance (12 kilometers) to Longstanton Park and Ride and catching the bus onwards from there. I had a fascinating conversation on gender issues in 4 year olds at the A14 meeting. Onwards to the Norris for volunteering work, I was tasked with taking some imaginative pictures of items in the museum shop for use in social media awareness. i made two forays into town with a basket full of goods, trying to photograph a selection of items at different locations. I ended up using the smartphone for taking photos due to the greater depth of field. I ended up with an unexpected free drink at a pub I used as a backdrop.

Unusual fact about African names learnt today from author Nkoli Rowley, Kofi Annan was born on a Friday as that is the meaning of the name Kofi (boy born on a Friday)!

The cycle ride back home was slightly easier as the wind was behind me some of the way. I still arrived hot and therefore had the first portion of the Dr Oetker Stracciatella icecream that I made last night to help cool down.

Government Gets Its Way in Brexit Amendment Votes. SNP Walkout. Roman Secrets

WWI tank floral feature Huntingdon

On Tuesday, the Government won each of the challenges it made to the Lord's amendments to the Brexit Bill. however, it was a close thing on the matter of whether parliament should have a vote on any Brexit deal. One minister had resigned and there was sufficient resistance in the ranks that the government could scent a possible defeat. However, Theresa May apparently made some promises that an amendment would be made when the bill passed back to the House of Lords, one that seemed sufficient for the Tory rebels either to abstain or vote with the Government.

A vote today for Britain to stay within the  European Economic Area (EEA) after Brexit was defeated. Jeremy Corbyn had asked for party members to abstain from voting but 90 Labour MP's broke ranks, with 75 voting for the proposal.

The main excitement came during Prime Minister Questions when the SNP Leader Ian Blackford protested against the short time for debating devolution issues and was asked to leave the house for the day by the Speaker. The SNP leader was promptly followed out of the House by the SNP MPs amidst claims that Westminster was trying to claw back powers from Scotland.

The Government did suffer a defeat elsewhere today, when the EU decided to proceed with the procurement for next round of Galileo sat nav construction and launches. Because no deal has been agreed between London and the EU-27 to allow Britain continued participation in Galileo, it looks increasingly likely that UK companies will not get access to new contracts or even influence on the future of Galileo.

Jane and I visited Histon Library after lunch, to listen to Kate Hadley talk of Roman votive treasures found in the region. It was based on the 'Roman Secrets' DVD and PDF ebook that we had produced an published for Kate.

Donald-Kim Love-In Promises NK Denuclearisation and US Withdrawal. Elderflower Cheesecake and Jelly.

Sambocade cheese cake

I was gradually rising out of my BrexiTrump lethargy last weekend when President Trump swanned in to the G7 gathering to turn it into a G6 v 1. Having riled America's usual allies in Europe and Canada with his drastic import tariffs on steel and aluminium, Trump was persuaded to sign the usual end of summit declaration, only to withdraw it after seeing the Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau give the gently acid quote, on how Canada would react to US tariffs with counter tariffs of their own:
"I have made it very clear to the president that it is not something we relish doing, but it is something that we absolutely will do, because Canadians, we’re polite, we’re reasonable, but we also will not be pushed around."
Apparently it is however OK for the president to say in his interview before the summit on tariffs and trade imbalances:
"We’re like the piggy bank that everybody’s robbing. And that ends."

However, The G& was obviously just a sideshow, because there were more important global matters to consider, namely the President's key meeting with North Korea's Kim Jong-un today. Apparently the two got on very well and completed with a signing of four key actions arising from the meeting:

1. The United States and the DPRK commit to establish new US-DPRK relations in accordance with the desire of the peoples of the two countries for peace and prosperity.
2. The United States and DPRK will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
3. Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
4. The United States and the DPRK commit to recovering POW/MIA remains, including the immediate repatriation of those already identified.

The President also surprised the world and his own Pentagon by declaring that the USA would suspend its exercises with South Korea, something that has always been on North Korea's agenda. Whilst point 3, the North Korean commitment to working towards complete denuclearisation of the peninsula, is a wording previously made by North Korea, President Trump gave a positive response to reporters:
“We got to know each other well in a very confined period of time, I know when somebody wants to deal and I know when somebody doesn’t.”

We can but hope.

Parliament is busy with voting on the Brexit bill after its return from the Lords. I'll tackle that topic tomorrow!

With the weather warming slightly over the weekend, I was struck by the many elderflowers in bloom whilst on walks. It reminded me of a recipe for 'Sambocade' in the 'Pleyn Delit' mediaeval cookbook. Essentially this is an elderflower flavoured cheesecake. The cheese mixture is flavoured with elderflower blossom. I picked three or four large flower heads and tried stripping off the small flowers with a fork. It turned out to be easier to use my fingers, which were yellow with pollen by the time I had finished. you can find a recipe online here at http://www.cookitsimply.com/recipe-0010-014d839.html. I could hardly taste the elderflower in the mixture at room temperature. However, after baking and chilling, the cold cheese cake had a fresh elderflower flavour. Sadly Jane was not too impressed and so I have been working my way through a whole cheese cake over the past couple of days.

Seeing so many elderflowers, it seemed a waste not to do more. Wary of making something that I alone would be eating ad nauseum, I thought I'd try to make some elderflower jelly. Using 4 flower heads stripped into 250ml water with the juice of half a lemon and a ring of lemon rind, I boiled the mixture for a couple of minutes and strained it. Still recovering 250 ml of the flavoured liquid, I added 300 g of jam sugar, boiled for 4 minutes, adding a small knob of butter, and poured into a preheated empty jam jar and sealed. The few remaining dregs that didn't make it into the jar were set to cool on a saucer in the fridge. It gave a delicately flavoured spread. Once the jar had cooled, it was into the pantry to save for a different season.

Brexit Backstops. HIBN. Steel Guitars, Shark-art and Recycling Plastic

Art on the Guided Busway.

A lovely quote from BBC Katya Adler's article today, on the response of an EU official watching the UK prepare for the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. They said:
"It just can't work," an EU diplomat told me in exasperation this week. "Theresa May has so many nooses dangling around her neck that one of those nooses is sure to hang her."

Yes, there has been another Brexit storm-in-a-teacup, or Barney in Number 10, amidst threats that our ebullient chief EU negotiator David Davis threatened to resign if he didn't get his way. The cause was the UK proposal for a "backstop" solution, just in case negotiations fail. This was to counter the EU's backstop, which effectively says that to ensure that the border in Ireland does not become a hard one, the whole of Eire could be an EU consistent economic zone, effectively shifting the national UK border into the stretch of water between Ireland and the UK mainland. The hardline DUP can not stand for that.

The alternative that the Prime Minister proposed was that the UK would follow the practice set out below, I quote directly from the Government's technical document:
This arrangement would see:

• The elimination of tariffs, quotas, rules of origin and customs processes including
  declarations on all UK -EU trade; 
• The UK outside the scope of the Common Commercial Policy (CCP), except where it is
  required to enable the temporary customs arrangement to function. This will mean
  applying the EU’s common external tariff (CET) at the UK’s external border, alongside
  the Union Customs Code (UCC) and such other parts of the Common Commercial Policy
  that are required to enable the temporary customs arrangement to function; and
• The UK able to negotiate, sign and ratify free trade agreements (FTAs) with rest of world partners and implement those elements that do not affect the functioning of the temporary customs arrangement. 

The first two points are basically "we will continue to act as if we are within the EU"

Hard brexiteers were up in arms because it could result in an indefinite interim term, which could push any final EU-UK agreement into the distant future - or not at all.

The compromise reached was that the backstop could only last till the end of December 2021.

It is a fudge that appeases all sides and lets the government trundle on in deadlock within itself. Whether the EU will accept it by the deadline for decision making at the end of this month is up in the air.

I've started using my bike for trips to the station (yesterday) or to the Histon and Impington Business Network (today). At the latter, the topic of GDPR raised its head as we tried to clarify whether it required common sense (my opinion) or added an unusual burden on small businesses.

Made several interesting discoveries today. One of the HIBN visitors enjoying the morning teas, coffees and patisserie at The Geographer, played a steel guitar outside of work. I hadn't realised that playing a steel guitar involved not only using a steel (or teflon coated) slider, there were also foot and knee pedals to adjust the tone and pitch of the instrument whilst playing.

Cycling down the guided busway back towards Milton, I stopped and admired the impressive mural under the bridge which featured an excellent shark as you can see from the photo above.

Then stopped again to chat to a person who was testing out whether you could re-use the non-degradable plastic tubes used to protect young trees (internal diameter about 15cm) as simple waste collection bins.

Workwise, today was a day of video-editing a Quekett member's hour long talk. I'm about a third of the way through.

Trump's Tariffs and Cautious Brexit Bankers. Lino printing.

Trying out lino printing

Today, President Trump imposed the 25% tax on steel and 10% tax on aluminium from the EU, Mexico and Canada. The tariffs will come to effect at midnight, presumably US Washington time. The EU has already responded strongly that it will retaliate and I understand that Canada and Mexico intend to too. According to expert commentators, the idea of the imposed tariffs is to push the EU and others into renegotiating trade terms that are more favourable to the US. the strategy also shows the President's rust belt voters that he is keeping his 'America First' promise. POTUS and Kim Jong-un of North Korea may be meeting after all, though whether they will keep to the original timetable in June or later is not yet set.

Europe and the financial markets are also reeling in response to the sharp shift to the populists, both left and right, and the inability to form a government. Meanwhile in the UK, energy prices are finally on the rise as the correction to increased international market prices comes through.

Barclays Bank is reviewing its lending and taking a more cautious line due to the slower growth in the UK and the uncertainty re Brexit. Lloyds of London is also moving 40 of its 600 UK-based jobs to Brussels in order to maintain its place at the heart of Europe.

Meanwhile, I've continued conducting interviews in preparation for the COS history, and fascinating it is too. The July Cambridge Open Studios are looming on the horizon and it is getting to the stage to decide which pictures to exhibit this year, with Jane having a good selection too.

I've also begun trying out Lino printing. It has been a challenge but I'm gradually getting to grips with cutting the lino. The one think I constantly have to remember is to flip any image to its mirror image, so that I get the correct positive print. I'm hoping to have some of the prints ready for COS too.

UK Chasing Brexit Fantasy. Trump Politely Calls of Kim Jong-Un Meeting. Kilauea Volcano.

Entrance to Norris Museum

Strong words coming out of the EU about the UK's unrealistic expectations in the current negotiations. It said that the UK was "chasing a fantasy" for trying to obtain benefits that were more favourable than those for other EU countries.

The irritation level was raised further with the UK by its threat  to recover more than €1bn of contributions to the Galileo satellite project unless the European commission lifted a block on the participation of  British firms being involved. “The EU doesn’t negotiate under threat,” the senior EU official said. “Such a request for reimbursement would be backsliding and unacceptable.”

The EU also rejected the idea that the entire UK could remain half-inside the EU’s single market, while benefiting from a special customs deal to avoid a hard border.

Whilst the EU increasingly sees itself as being presented as the fall guey for Brexit going wrong, the UK negotiators remain sanguine, putting all the negative comments as negotiation posturing.

Across the pond, President Trump has called off the summit with Kim Jong-un in Singapore due to the angry responses from North Korea in recent days. POTUS's letter to the NK President is broadly a well phrased positive lett of regret with only one slight dig included in the sentence "You talk about nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used.".

Meanwhile, the effects are hitting home of Trump's global ban on funding to organisations that provide advice on abortion as part of their family planning. Ironically, in Kenya, the disappearance of funding has actually led to an increase in back street abortions in Kenya. There have also been more more unwanted births as the same organisation provide contraception advice and access, pushing poor families even further into poverty with extra mouths to feed.

With GDPR registration due by this Friday, I had completed mine successfully for the company yesterday. Today the battle was with the formatting of our most recent book in a final form to send for review by the author before considering going to print. In the afternoon, I also finally whittled down the images I had taken of the Norris Museum Wisteria, edited and exported them. As Camilla sourdough needed feeding, I also set up a 40% rye - 60% wheat sourdough loaf to ferment during the day before baking and made a fresh batch of soft oat biscuits, flavoured with vanilla and three fruits marmalade.

With the news continuing to report on the Hawaiian volcano eruption and damage, I looked a bit closer into Kīlauea. Teh island of Hawaii is the largest of a chain of islands that stretch Northwest into the Pacific Ocean and continue underwater as a series of further elevations. All the islands have been created by the Pacific plate moving over the so-called Hawaiian Hotspot, where lava pushesthrough the Pacific plate and erupts, the lava gradually building a mound of volcanic rock that emerges from the sea. As the plate moves further Northwest, the resultant island moves away from the hotspot, it's volcanoes grow silent and erosion by the ocean and the elements gradually erodes the new island. Eventually such an island will disappear under the sea. Hawaii is the most recent island being formed over the hotspot and the volcanoes Kilauea and Mauna Loa locate its position, on the Southeast flank of the island.

The basaltic lava that emerges from the volcanoes in Hawaii is relatively fluid, which has two consequences, it can flow fairly rapidly and the volcanoes are relatively flat and disk or shield shaped. Kilauea is relatively young geologically speaking at 300,000 to 600,000 years, and eruptions are relatively frequent, even by human standards. Kilauea is likely to continue to be active within a human timeframe. However, there is already a newer volcano just southeast of it, three miles off the Hawaiian coastline, Lōʻihi Seamount. This is yet to emerge to create it's own new land to add to the island of Hawaii.

For those wanting to buy property in Hawaii, the volcanic activity stamps its authority on house prices, with those in the Southeast, closest to the active volcanoes being much lower than those to the Northwest. Insurance is also more expensive in the Southeast and is likely to exclude lava damage. So the question every homebuyer in the Southeast of Hawaii will ask in a Clint Eastwood kind of way is "Do I feel lucky?"

Compassionate Britain? HMRC Slams Mac Fac. Kiev's $400k for Trump Lawyer.

Baits Bite Lock, Milton, with cyclist and river boat.

Some new wonderful examples of of the compassionate Britain we now live in. There is the nurse who went to Jamaica on her retirement after 30 years in the UK, to look after her parents. She continued paying UK taxes on her pension. But when she became ill on a return visit to the UK, receiving the shock diagnosis of bone cancer, she was then hounded for £4,388 before she could receive further treatment. Yes, since April 2015, if you leave the UK to live somewhere else, you will have to pay for medical treatment if you become ill on a visit to the UK. Then there is the former mayor of Ipswich. She had lived for 40 years in the UK, married a Brit and became a Liberal councillor for 19 years. The Home Office rejected her application for citizenship, which cost her £1,282, because it “cannot be satisfied” that she is permanently a resident in the UK.

Hard Brexiteers were dealt a harsh blow today, by none other than the Chief Executive of HM Revenue and Customs Jon Thompson. He suggested that a hard Brexit would necessitate an estimated 200 million customs declarations at a cost of £20 to £50 each for companies, accruing to between £17bn and £20bn a year. This is more than the £16bn cost of EU membership for 2016. Theresa May's preferred option of a customs partnership would in contrast cost about £3.4bn a year. In either case, the HMRC thinks it would 3 to 5 years to bed in any new system, and that would start from next year's brexit date.

Meanwhile President Trump had two irritations today. The first was that sources in Kiev claimed that Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, had received a secret payment of at least $400,000 (£300,000) to fix talks between the Ukrainian president and President Trump. This was of course denied, and POTUS himself was not party to this. The second was the judgement that President Trump could not block people on Twitter from viewing his tweets if they held views contrary or different politically from his own. He can mute the tweets, ie, he can choose not to see the critical responses from individuals.

Spent today conducting a longer interview for my COS history research and arranging some more appointments. Took a walk down to the river this evening and tried taking a photo of the lock using my Huawei P10, held stable on a surface, with surprising success.

Trump's Stick for Iran and Rage for Spy. Brexit Hits Company Registrations. Train and Phone delays.

Letchworth fountain

With a bullish attitude apparently having an effect in intimidating North Korea into action over nuclear disarmament and initiating a response from China re the trade imbalance, President Trump is turning to Iran and putting it under economic pressure. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised the harhest sanctions ever - and woe betide anyone daring to cross them, like the Europeans. He issued a full twelve demands for Iran to comply with. The demands might on the surface all seem perfectly laudable as ideals to the presenter, but they are going to rile the recipient, Iran and are therefore not realistic. Any nation would be strongly irritated by the imperial tone. But perhaps, these are meant to fail as the idea for the US could be regime change - and I presume that would require continued suffering of Iran's people for a while to foment discord.

Meanwhile, the President is in paroxysms of rage about the possibility of a spy being placed in is election team, according to his weekend tweets. He had demanded an investigation into his claims that the Obama administration inserted an FBI spy into his 2016 campaign. He tweeted:
"I hereby demand, and will do so officially tomorrow, that the Department of Justice look into whether or not the FBI/DOJ infiltrated or surveilled the Trump Campaign for Political Purposes - and if any such demands or requests were made by people within the Obama Administration!" Barbed comments were also directed towards the previous (Obama era) CIA director John Brennan, who Trump apparently regards as the possible initiator of the Mueller investigation. All this before the new director of the CIA, Gina Haspel, was sworn in.

Since the initiation of Brexit, company registrations in the UK by foreign businesses has dropped dramatically by between 38%  (Belgian applications), to 48% (France). According to the Guardian, " OECD figures show that foreign direct investment into the UK tumbled in 2017 by 90%". Apparently analysts lay the blame squarely at the feet of the split and indecisive British Cabinet.

On a glorious sunny morning, I set off on foot to Cambridge North station to catch a train to Letchworth. This on the day where more than 60% of rail timetables had been changed over a significant part of the network and trouble was anticipated. The journey started off late due to difficulties with power to the train. Eventually we got underway and I had an interesting conversation with a septuagenarian marathon and half marathon runner from Devon, on the first leg of his home journey. The Broadway in Letchworth proved a pleasant walk to my destination, for a Quekett related meeting. After a light lunch, it was back on the train to Cambridge, fortunately catching one that wasn't cancelled. Ensured a revised flyer was printed and delivered correctly to one of our authors. Caught a delayed train back to Cambridge North. Jane not answering the phone, so walked back home. Only to find that whilst the phone seemed to be ringing on my smartphone, it was actually silent at home - courtesy of BT's newest hole and box on our pavement. Phoned BT (yet again) to get the problem resolved!